The Bangsamoro Organic Law mandates the first regular election in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) in 2025, following a three-year extension for the region’s political transition and normalization.

The central question at the moment is whether the members of the Bangsamoro Transition Authority (BTA) can complete their tasks before the 2025 election or they would need another three-year extension until 2028. Whichever path the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), which is governing BARMM, would take has significant implications.

On March 27, during the anniversary of the Comprehensive Bangsamoro Agreement (CAB), Chair Ebrahim presented the status of the CAB to various leaders from the Bangsamoro, civil society organizations, and communities. He highlighted that significant achievements were made in the past five years. The normalization track has completed its third phase, profiling and processing a total of 26,132 MILF combatants. Numerous weapons have also been turned over and disposed of through the International Decommissioning Body (IDB). The legal track focuses on implementing major codes that will provide a foundation for the Bangsamoro government.

However, the report acknowledged that despite the significant accomplishments made so far, some limitations and gaps still need to be addressed. One of these limitations is that the transition period will end in 2025, which means time is limited to accomplish all the priority codes that need to be implemented. Furthermore, adequate funds for normalization are lacking, particularly the socio-economic package for returnees, making it difficult to implement some of the key provisions of the peace agreement.

The interim government is aware of the predicament and is urgently ensuring implementation of everything promised under the peace deal. According to Ebrahim, it is time for an interim government to follow the constitutional track to address the gaps in the implementation of the peace agreement. He added that their legal flexibility and creativity are not enough, and more concrete actions need to be taken to address these limitations and ensure the successful implementation of the peace agreement.

The BTA, responsible for crafting legislation and ensuring a higher degree of political and fiscal autonomy in the Bangsamoro region, has been given a six-year transition period. However, many communities and locals in the region have expressed their concerns regarding the feasibility of accomplishing the mandate within the given time frame. 

Despite the BTA’s best efforts, there is still uncertainty about whether it can complete the assigned tasks in time. Hence, Senator Raffy Tulfo has filed a bill in the Senate, and Congresswoman Sittie Aminah Dimaporo, a counterpart in the House of Representatives, to extend the BTA’s term from 2025 to 2028. 

The proposed bills have the objective of modifying the Bangsamoro Organic Law to prolong the transitional period for an additional three years. This extension aims to guarantee the effective execution of the peace process and to enable the first regular election for the Bangsamoro parliament to coincide with the national election in 2028. The proposed extension of the transition period is expected to provide more time for the BTA to accomplish its mandate and for the Bangsamoro region to transition into an autonomous government fully. This will also allow for a smoother and more coordinated peace process implementation, which is critical for the region’s stability and development.

Another extension?

Various civil society organizations have supported the move to extend the Bangsamoro transition period until June 2028. These include the RAnow Movement, as well as Moro leaders in Mindanao. The reason behind this is to sustain peace progress and to provide some flexibility to the BTA members to fulfill their duties. However, the issue of extension is expected to face challenges as President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and peace adviser Charlie Galvez have expressed the view that the transition should no longer be extended.

The proposal to extend the transition has received criticism from some observers and critics who argue that it could set a dangerous precedent. They believe that extending the elections could harm the democratic process in the Bangsamoro area and may be motivated by self-interest. They are concerned that extending the period would mean another three years without a popular mandate, since the current BTA members were appointed by the President instead of being elected. 

Further, the BTA created the Bangsamoro Electoral Code (BEC) as an interim governing body for the BARMM. The code outlines the plan for the 80-member Parliament that will be elected in May 2025. The Parliament will comprise 40 party representatives, 32 district representatives, and eight sectoral representatives.

Strife

However, there are growing concerns among leaders in the Bangsamoro region about the upcoming election. 

One Bangsamoro leader said some of the traditional politicians are sabotaging the leader of the BARMM from within. Their motive is to create the tensions that the regional government is led by a divided MILF. This political schism between the Ebrahim-led MILF and some of the political clans is causing unrest in the region. It has led to an increase in violent incidents.

Some traditional local politicians are now forming political parties to run in the election. According to Mindanews, eight political parties are already expected to participate in the first parliamentary election in the BARMM. These parties include the MNLF-Sema faction, the MNLF-Nor Misuari faction, local politicians in Maguindanao and Lanao del Sur, and one from the non-Moro indigenous people. 

The 2025 election seems to be a fiercely contested political process for the Bangsamoro, which could also challenge the gains and continuity of the peace process, providing opportunities for different groups to maintain and preserve their self-interests. 

It is important to note that the region has political dynasties with vested interests that should be considered. The recent barangay election also proves that some provinces of BARMM have prevalent election-related violence and killings, which could potentially disrupt the democratic process. Some of these recent skirmishes and unresolved killings, particularly in central Mindanao, can be traced to conflicts over land and politics between and among MILF members and militias controlled by powerful clans through funding private armies.

The ongoing political violence and growing polarization among the Bangsamoro leaders in the Maguindanao and Cotabato regions of the Philippines have led to the exacerbation of poverty and inequality among the local communities. Even though these regions are the political and economic center of BARMM, they remain the poorest areas in the country. 

Volatile, fragile

The current stakeholders of the MILF-led government are facing a fragile and challenging situation despite the fact that BARMM has already received significant funds from the central government, including the annual block grant in 2023. Several unfulfilled promises could potentially hinder their chances in the upcoming election

It remains unclear whether the proposed extension is driven by the MILF’s interest in having more time to organize and consolidate the Moro communities to support the UBJP for the elections. If so, this is about securing the majority of seats in the parliament, especially since local politicians have also started to mobilize their bases. This could create a challenging environment for the MILF-led government, as they may face stiff competition from other political parties.

To be clear, there is no doubt about the Moro leaders’ commitment to the peace agreement. However, their commitment to proceeding with the 2025 election may be tested given its complexities and challenges. 

The MILF-led government must carefully consider all consequences of its decisions as it navigates this volatile and fragile situation. It is up to the MILF to decide whether they will hold the election in 2025 and potentially face unfavorable scenarios, or if they will boycott the election to demonstrate their collective stance on extending the BTA term. The clock is ticking for them to make a decision.

Ultimately, their decisions will have significant implications for the future of the Moro people and the region as a whole. – Rappler.com

Reemar B. Alonsagay is a migrant-Christian born and raised in the Bangsamoro area with extensive experience in advocacy work for peace and conflict transformation within and outside the Bangsamoro region. He earned his master’s degree in Peace and Conflict Transformation Studies in Panassatra University of Cambodia. He is now a consultant of a local-based NGO and Research Officer of an International Humanitarian Organization.