Binay biggest gainer if Poe disqualified – Pulse Asia

MANILA, Philippines (UPDATED) – Vice President Jejomar Binay would be the biggest gainer among the presidential candidates if Senator Grace Poe is ultimately disqualified from the presidential race, according to the results of a Pulse Asia survey released on Wednesday, March 9.

The ABS-CBN-commissioned national survey, conducted from February 16 to 27 among 5,200 registered voters, showed Poe and Binay statistically tied for top spot at 26% and 24%, respectively, followed by Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte (22%) and administration standard-bearer Manuel “Mar” Roxas II (19%).

“In the event that Senator Poe does not pursue her presidential bid, Vice-President Binay would gain the most as 32% of her original voters would instead vote for him,” Pulse Asia president Ronald Holmes said in a statement.

The survey results were released a day after the Supreme Court allowed Poe to run.

The survey, which asked respondents for their first and second choice for president, showed that Poe is the top second choice of voters of the 3 other leading presidential candidates.

"In the event that their original choice for president does not continue his/her candidacy, 29% of registered voters would instead vote for Senator Poe. In second place is Vice-President Binay (22%) while third place is shared by former DILG Secretary Roxas (15%) and Davao City Mayor Duterte (12%)," Holmes said.

In case any of the candidates would drop out of the race, Poe would get 37% of Binay’s supporters, 31% of Duterte's voters, and 41% of Roxas' supporters. 

Santiago is the alternative presidential candidate of 8% of voters.

Tight race

The latest Pulse Asia survey results show the top 4 candidates in a tight race less than 3 months before the May elections, with the lead shared by Binay and Poe, with Duterte and Roxas close behind them.

Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago's voter preference rating is at 3%.

Based on geographical location, Poe is the top bet of Metro Manilans with a 30% preference rating, followed by Binay (26%), and Duterte (25%). In the rest of Luzon, Poe and Binay top other contenders at 32% and 30%, respectively.

Roxas is the first choice for president of Visayan registered voters (33%) while Davao City Mayor Duterte is the top pick for the post in Mindanao (47%).

Based on socioeconomic classes, Duterte is the top choice of Class ABC, with a preference rating of 27%, followed by Poe (21%), Binay (21%), and Roxas (17%).

Class D gave the highest preference rating to Poe and Binay at 26% and 24%, respectively. In Class E, Poe is the top choice with 27%, followed by Binay (23%), and Roxas (23%). 

Reacting to the survey results, Duterte said, "Sabi ko nga, those things really don’t matter to me. At the end of the day, the Filipinos will realize that I am the last card sa problema nito ngayon, Mindanao, tapos yung corruption, criminality at droga." (As I said, those things really don't matter to me. At the end of the day, the Filipinos will realize that I am the last card sa problema nito ngayon, Mindanao, then corruption, criminality and drugs.)

During the survey period, among the major issues were oral arguments in the Supreme Court on the disqualification case against Poe, the dismissal of the disqualification cases against Duterte, and the graft charges against dismissed Makati mayor Jejomar Erwin “Junjun” Binay Jr and others in connection with the alleged overpriced Makati City parking building II.

Pulse Asia said its nationwide survey has a ± 1.4% error margin at the 95% confidence level. Subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the survey have the following error margins at 95% confidence level: ± 4% for Metro Manila, ± 2.1% for the rest of Luzon and ± 3% for Visayas and 2.8 for ± Mindanao. – Mia Gonzalez/Rappler.com