Rain was hitting parts of the Philippines early Tuesday morning, September 15, due to the low pressure area (LPA) inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

In a bulletin issued 4 am on Tuesday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the LPA is now 225 kilometers west northwest of Catarman, Northern Samar, or 40 kilometers west of Pili, Camarines Sur.

PAGASA said the LPA is expected to cross the Southern Luzon-Visayas area.

Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are being experienced in these areas on Tuesday, even before the LPA crosses land:

• Metro Manila
• Calabarzon
• Mimaropa
• Bicol
• Aurora
• Visayas
• Mindanao

PAGASA warned that the rain, ranging from light to heavy, could cause flash floods and landslides. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

The rest of Luzon, not affected by the LPA, will only have isolated rain showers or localized thunderstorms on Tuesday.

PAGASA Weather Specialist Aldczar Aurelio also said the LPA could develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday, September 16, or Thursday, September 17.

If it does, it would be given the local name Leon, as the Philippines’ 12th tropical cyclone for 2020.

It would also be the 2nd tropical cyclone for the month of September, after Typhoon Kristine (Haishen), which stayed far from land.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year. Only around half of these make landfall. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2020)

PAGASA gave the following estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR in the next 6 months:

• September 2020 – 2 or 3
• October 2020 – 2 or 3
• November 2020 – 1 or 2
• December 2020 – 1 or 2
• January 2021 – 1 or 2
• February 2021 – 0 or 1

PAGASA declared the start of the rainy season on June 12. – Rappler.com