The low pressure area that has been affecting Mindanao and parts of the Visayas developed into a tropical depression at 2 am on Monday, October 4.

It was given the local name Lannie, as the Philippines’ 12th tropical cyclone for 2021. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2021)

Lannie is also the first tropical cyclone for the month of October, coming right in the middle of the filing of certificates of candidacy for the 2022 elections, which is taking place across the country. The filing of COCs is until Friday, October 8.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in a briefing at 6 am on Monday that Tropical Depression Lannie was located 100 kilometers east of Surigao City, Surigao del Norte, before dawn.

The tropical depression is moving northwest at 20 kilometers per hour (km/h).

It has maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 55 km/h. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

If Lannie maintains its speed and direction, it could make landfall in the Siargao-Bucas Grande area in the province of Surigao del Norte within the next six hours, or by Monday morning.

The areas listed below should watch out for rain from Lannie, which may trigger floods and landslides. This forecast covers Monday until Tuesday morning, October 5, unless there are changes in PAGASA’s succeeding bulletins:

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• Visayas
• Bicol
• Mimaropa
• Calabarzon
• Caraga

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• Metro Manila
• Bulacan
• Bataan
• rest of Mindanao

In terms of wind, Signal No. 1 has been raised in these areas:

• southern part of Masbate (Pio V. Corpuz, Cataingan, Palanas, Dimasalang, Uson, Mobo, Milagros, Mandaon, Esperanza, Placer, Cawayan, Balud)
• southern part of Romblon (Cajidiocan, San Fernando, Magdiwang, Santa Maria, Odiongan, Alcantara, Ferrol, Looc, Santa Fe, San Jose)
• southern part of Oriental Mindoro (Roxas, Mansalay, Bulalacao, Bongabong)
• southern part of Occidental Mindoro (Sablayan, Calintaan, Rizal, San Jose, Magsaysay)
• northern part of Palawan (El Nido, Taytay, Dumaran, Araceli), including Calamian and Cuyo Islands
• Eastern Samar
• Samar
• Biliran
• Leyte
• Southern Leyte
• Capiz
• Aklan
• Antique
• Iloilo
• Guimaras
• Negros Occidental
• northern and central parts of Negros Oriental (Bais City, Mabinay, Bayawan City, Basay, Tanjay City, Manjuyod, Bindoy, Ayungon, Tayasan, Jimalalud, La Libertad, Guihulngan City, Vallehermoso, Canlaon City)
• Cebu
• Bohol
• Surigao del Norte
• Dinagat Islands
• northern part of Agusan del Norte (Magallanes, Remedios T. Romualdez, Cabadbaran City, Tubay, Santiago, Jabonga, Kitcharao, Butuan City)
• northern part of Agusan del Sur (Sibagat, Bayugan City, Prosperidad)
• northern part of Surigao del Sur (San Miguel, Marihatag, San Agustin, Cagwait, Bayabas, Tago, Tandag City, Cortes, Lanuza, Carmen, Madrid, Cantilan, Carrascal, Lianga)

Strong winds with occasional gusts are expected in areas under Signal No. 1. (READ: Why is it now called tropical cyclone ‘wind’ – and not ‘warning’ – signals?)

PAGASA added that “an enhanced easterly flow north of the tropical depression may also bring occasional gusts” to extreme Northern Luzon and the coastal and mountainous areas of the eastern part of Luzon on Monday.

Lannie is also causing moderate to rough seas in the Philippines’ coastal waters on Monday, especially in areas under Signal No. 1. Travel is risky for small vessels.

After its possible landfall in the Siargao-Bucas Grande area, Lannie is likely to cross the Dinagat Islands and the Visayas before emerging over the Sulu Sea early Tuesday morning, near or over the Cuyo archipelago.

After that, it could turn north and pass near or over the northern part of Palawan or Calamian Islands on Tuesday morning or early afternoon, before emerging over the West Philippine Sea late Tuesday afternoon or in the evening.

While crossing landmass, Lannie is seen to remain as a tropical depression.

But PAGASA said Lannie might intensify into a tropical storm by Wednesday afternoon, October 6, and then into a severe tropical storm when it is already outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

Lannie may leave PAR in the early hours of Thursday, October 7.

PAGASA

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year.

These are PAGASA’s latest estimates for the next six months:

2021

• October – 2 or 3
• November – 2 or 3
• December – 1 or 2

2022

• January – 0 or 1
• February – 0 or 1
• March – 0 or 1

The weather bureau is also monitoring the possible emergence of La Niña in the fourth quarter of 2021. – Rappler.com