MANILA, Philippines – Like clockwork, ministries and their embassies issue statements when July 12, the anniversary of the landmark landmark 2016 Arbitral Ruling, rolls in. Philippine agencies do the same.

Every year, too, the Philippines’ allies and friends – “like-minded” countries that are active and outspoken in supporting the ruling and the Philippines’ efforts to assert its sovereign rights and sovereignty claims in the West Philippine Sea – come together for forum and symposiums on the historic win.

Australia’s ambassador to Manila, Hae Kyong Yu, was the first diplomat to highlight an important context of one such gathering: that international support for Manila and the ruling, and continued pressure on Beijing to change its ways in the South China Sea, have come up short in keeping those waters safe and secure.

“Today’s event marks eight years since the 2016 Arbitral Award. Yet here we are again, still talking about how we are going to achieve maritime security in the West Philippine Sea because sadly, as we all know, we have continued to see conduct in the South China Sea that is dangerous and destabilizing – including as recently as on the 17th of June, near the Second Thomas Shoal,” Yu said on July 12, during Stratbase ADR Institute’s annual gathering.

Play Video

Yu was referring to when the China Coast Guard (CCG) harassed personnel of the elite Naval Special Operations Command (NAVSOCOM or NAVSOG) by towing, boarding, then destroying their vessels during a resupply mission to the BRP Sierra Madre in Ayungin Shoal.

The June 17 incident was not only the worst confrontation between Philippine and Chinese personnel in the West Philippine Sea. It also made it clear that “shaming” China into recognizing the Philippines’ sovereign rights – or at least shying away from provocative actions – doesn’t work anymore, if it ever did at all.

The notion, of analysts here and abroad, was that China would be too mindful of its international reputation to continue its aggressive actions against the Philippines in the South China Sea. It was one of the hopes of the government’s “transparency initiative” – that putting a spotlight on China’s actions would force it to change its shadowy, gray zone ways.

That doesn’t seem to be the case anymore.

“I do think that we are in a time when China is much more immune to reputational harm than it was in the past, right? And that’s very troubling. You hate to see a country begin to insulate itself that way because it makes it a very dangerous country,” Ray Powell, a retired United States Air Force colonel and former defense attache to Vietnam and Australia, told Rappler in an interview days before the Arbitral Award’s anniversary.

Yet, the level of violence that the China Coast Guard displayed in Ayungin Shoal on June 17, has seemingly caused Beijing to take pause, if one is to read between the lines of the usual diplomatic statements following a bilateral meeting between Manila and Beijing.

The Philippines, following (what was initially a secret) 9th meeting Bilateral Consultation Mechanism in Manila on July 2, said there was “substantial progress on developing measures to manage the situation at sea, but significant differences remain.”

The two sides, said the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA), “discussed their respective positions on Ayungin Shoal and affirmed their commitment to de-escalate tensions without prejudice to their respective positions.”

China, meanwhile, described it as a “candid and constructive exchange of views on the situation in the South China Sea, in particular, on handling the situation at Ren’ai Jiao” (the Chinese name for Ayungin Shoal).

No real agreement was made, but a lot of “possibilities” were explored: the promise to “continue discussions” or bilateral coast guard communication and cooperation (and the possible resumption of the Duterte-era Joint Coast Guard Committee), and the “possibility of convening an academic forum among scientists and academics on marine scientific and technological cooperation.”

These statements could mean nothing in reality, but after months of water cannon incidents, claims of a “new model” in the West Philippine Sea, a case of illegal wiretapping between a Chinese and Filipino general, and an aggressive confrontation that led to the loss of a Filipino soldier’s thumb and the destruction and seizure of Philippine Navy equipment – agreeing to talk becomes an achievement.

And so discussions go back to the 2016 Arbitral Ruling – a milestone, as noted by US Ambassador MaryKay Carlson. It’s a milestone that Beijing still refuses to acknowledge as valid. In a response to the DFA’s statement on the award’s anniversary, the Chinese embassy in Manila called the arbitration “essentially a political circus dressed up as a legal action.”

(The Chinese embassy also blamed the US for good measure – “US annually ropes in allies to play up the issue of the illegal award against China in a vain attempt to exert pressure on, and force China into accepting the award. We are firmly against this.”)

Where can diplomacy and the recalibration of the defense and security sectors take us? We’ll find out sooner than later. After all, the soldiers aboard the BRP Sierra Madre are overdue for a proper rotation and resupply.

WPS sentiments

For most Filipinos, “defending the integrity of Philippine territory against foreigners” is still among the lowest-ranked of national concerns (at just 4%), according to a June 2024 Pulse Asia survey. As usual, inflation, worker’s pay, poverty and jobs were still the top concerns. The survey was taken from June 17 to 24 – just after the incident in Ayungin Shoal.

The same survey showed that 30% of Filipinos approved of the way the administration as been “defending the integrity of Philippine territory against foreigners” (48% approved, 34% were undecided, while 18% did not approve). Only 24% of those surveyed said the Marcos had fulfilled his promise to “defend the country’s sovereignty, particularly in the West Philippine Sea and our exclusive economic zone.”

The same survey said that while “defending the integrity of Philippine territory against foreigners” was considered not a priority, almost a third of those surveyed (31%) said President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. should talk about “actions to be taken to stop the incursion of other countries into the Philippine territory in the West Philippine Sea” in his upcoming State of the Nation Address (SONA) on July 22.

In the Philippines, while the issue of sovereign rights and sovereignty claims in the West Philippine Sea is not a priority, it’s still a gut issue, tugging at patriotic strings. Foreign policies are informed and even shaped by public sentiment – especially if they come from a president who has fashioned himself as a poster child for the rules-based international order.

The challenge, said presidential adviser Andres Centino, is for the various agencies and units to figure out how to “cooperate in consolidating ways to promote our 2016 Arbitral Victory in accordance with national and international law.” Who knows? Enforcing it might eventually become a reality. – Rappler.com