MANILA, Philippines – A low pressure area (LPA) outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) developed into a tropical depression on Monday, November 13.

As of 10 am on Monday, the tropical depression was located 1,540 kilometers east of southeastern Mindanao, moving east at 20 kilometers per hour (km/h).

It has maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 55 km/h.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in an advisory issued at 11 am that the tropical depression may shift south southwest in the next 12 hours.

Then it could turn west southwest and subsequently west northwest as it gradually speeds up toward the eastern boundary of PAR.

“It will then turn further west northwestward or westward on Thursday…on a steady pace towards the waters of Eastern Visayas,” PAGASA added.

Based on the initial forecast, the tropical cyclone may enter PAR late Wednesday, November 15, or Thursday, November 16.

It will be given the local name Kabayan once it enters PAR.

For now, it also has no international name yet. International names are only given to tropical cyclones once they reach tropical storm status.

PAGASA expects the tropical depression to strengthen in the coming days. By Saturday, November 18, it could already be a typhoon with a peak intensity of 120 km/h – referring to maximum sustained winds.

“The possibility of further intensification prior to its close approach to Eastern Visayas is not ruled out,” the weather bureau said.

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Tropical cyclone wind signals are highly likely to be raised for eastern parts of the Visayas and Mindanao.

PAGASA also warned provinces in the Visayas, Mindanao, and Bicol to brace for heavy rain starting Friday, November 17.

Rough to very rough seas are possible in the eastern seaboards of Southern Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao beginning Thursday, too. This would be risky for small vessels.

The incoming tropical cyclone will be the Philippines’ 11th tropical cyclone for 2023 and the first for November. The weather bureau earlier estimated that one or two tropical cyclones could enter or form within PAR during the month. – Rappler.com