MANILA, Philippines – Tropical Storm Paeng (Nalgae) slightly intensified before dawn on Friday, October 28, as it continued to move over the Philippine Sea.

Paeng now has maximum sustained winds of 75 kilometers per hour from the previous 65 km/h, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in a briefing past 5 am on Friday. The tropical storm’s gustiness went up to 90 km/h from 80 km/h.

Paeng is expected to strengthen into a severe tropical storm on Friday, and into a typhoon by Saturday, October 29, as it moves very close to Bicol.

PAGASA said rapid intensification is possible within 48 hours.

In the early hours of Friday, Paeng was located 410 kilometers east of Borongan City, Eastern Samar. It slightly accelerated, heading west northwest at 15 km/h after moving slowly.

Paeng is seen to maintain its west northwest direction over the Philippine Sea until Sunday, October 30, as it heads for Central Luzon or Southern Luzon.

It could make its first landfall in Catanduanes on Saturday morning, or pass very close to the island province. Then a second landfall is likely in Aurora or the east coast of Quezon, including Polillo Islands, on Sunday morning.

PAGASA is also not ruling out landfall in the eastern part of Bicol since Paeng’s track has been shifting southward.

Signal No. 2 was raised for the first time at 5 am on Friday. Below are the areas under tropical cyclone wind signals.

Signal No. 2

Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property

• Catanduanes
• Albay
• Sorsogon
• eastern part of Camarines Sur (Caramoan, Garchitorena, Presentacion, Lagonoy, Goa, San Jose, Tigaon, Iriga City, Saglay, Buhi)
• Northern Samar
• northern part of Eastern Samar (Jipapad, Arteche, Oras, San Policarpo, Maslog, Dolores, Can-avid, Taft)

Signal No. 1

Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property

• Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands
• Camarines Norte
• rest of Camarines Sur
• Romblon
• Marinduque
• Quezon including Polillo Islands
• Laguna
• Rizal
• Samar
• rest of Eastern Samar
• Biliran
• Leyte
• Southern Leyte
• northern part of Cebu (Daanbantayan, Medellin, San Remigio, Tabogon, Bogo City, Borbon) including Bantayan and Camotes Islands
• Dinagat Islands
• Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands
• northern part of Surigao del Sur (Carrascal, Cantilan, Madrid, Carmen, Lanuza, Cortes, Tandag City, Bayabas, Tago, Cagwait)

The highest possible wind signal is Signal No. 4 since Paeng is likely to become a typhoon.

Paeng is also enhancing the surge of the northeast monsoon or hanging amihan, which will bring strong winds to these areas:

• Batanes
• Babuyan Islands
• northern and eastern parts of mainland Cagayan
• eastern part of Isabela
• Ilocos Norte
• Ilocos Sur
• northern part of Apayao

Meanwhile, PAGASA updated its rainfall forecast for Paeng. Torrential rain may begin on Friday.

Friday, October 28, to early Saturday morning, October 29

Heavy to intense rain, with at times torrential rain

• Bicol
• Northern Samar
• Samar
• Eastern Samar

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• Western Visayas
• Marinduque
• Romblon
• Quezon

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• Caraga
• Zamboanga Peninsula
• Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao
• Northern Mindanao
• rest of Visayas
• mainland Cagayan Valley
• Aurora
• Rizal
• Laguna

Early Saturday morning, October 29, to Sunday morning, October 30

Heavy to intense rain, with at times torrential rain

• Calabarzon
• Bicol
• Aurora
• Nueva Vizcaya
• Quirino

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• Metro Manila
• mainland Cagayan Valley
• Cordillera Administrative Region
• rest of Central Luzon
• Marinduque
• Romblon
• Occidental Mindoro
• Oriental Mindoro
• Western Visayas

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• rest of Luzon
• rest of Visayas

Areas to be affected by Paeng must watch out for floods and landslides.

PAGASA added that areas covered by the rainfall forecast may be updated in its next bulletins “should there be significant shifts in the track and intensity forecast of Paeng.”

Classes have been suspended in some areas for Friday. Several places are already flooded after they saw continuous rain in the past few days from Paeng’s trough or extension and the shear line.

PAGASA also warned that there is a minimal to moderate risk of storm surges up to 2 meters high, which may cause floods in the “low-lying and exposed coastal areas” of the following:

• Catanduanes
• Albay
• Camarines Norte
• northern and eastern parts of Camarines Sur
• Polillo Islands

Due to both Paeng and the northeast monsoon, a new gale warning was issued at 5 am on Friday as well. Rough to very rough seas are expected in these seaboards:

• eastern seaboards of Southern Luzon and Visayas (northern and eastern coasts of Quezon including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, northern and eastern coasts of Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, eastern coast of Albay, eastern coast of Sorsogon, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar) – waves 3.4 to 6 meters high
• eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon and Central Luzon (eastern coast of Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora) – waves 3.1 to 5.5 meters high
• northern and western seaboards of Northern Luzon (Batanes, northern coast of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan) – waves 3.1 to 5.5 meters high
• eastern seaboard of Mindanao (eastern coast of Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands, eastern coast of Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Sur, eastern coast of Davao Oriental) – waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high

PAGASA advised fishing boats and other small vessels not to sail, and larger vessels to watch out for big waves. In Bicol and Northern Samar, sea trips have been canceled.

Paeng is the Philippines’ 16th tropical cyclone for 2022 and the fourth for October. PAGASA earlier said there may be up to four tropical cyclones during the month. – Rappler.com