Unlikely finalists: Nuggets-Heat, anyone?

The NBA missed out on a potential blockbuster Western Conference Finals. All season long, fans and analysts were eagerly anticipating a playoff encounter between the two teams from Los Angeles, the Clippers and the Lakers. Not gonna happen.

The next best thing for the league is to deliver to the fans the mother of all blockbusters, a dream finale featuring the biggest rivalry in NBA history, the Los Angeles Lakers versus the Boston Celtics.

The NBA obviously needs a Lakers-Celtics finals to cushion the losses incurred from the suspension of games due to the pandemic. At least 40% of league revenues come from gate receipts from live game nights in arenas, revenues lost when the NBA cut short the regular season and played out the rest of the season in the Orlando bubble.  

From a business standpoint, the NBA will not want to see an NBA Finals bannered by the Denver Nuggets or the Miami Heat, or both. But what really are the chances that we will see a Nuggets-Heat championship matchup? 

Well, the chances might not be that high, but it is not at all implausible. 

The Denver Nuggets are in the Western Conference Finals not because the Clippers choked. The Nuggets are in the WCF because they are a very good team.

Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are averaging a combined 52.5 points and will surely be marked men by the Lakers. But it would be foolish to brand Denver as just a two-men team. 

Starting small forward Jerami Grant is contributing 10.1 points a game while promising young big man Michael Porter Jr is averaging 11.1 points. Against the Lakers, the two will be called upon not just for offense. 

Grant will be tasked to cover LeBron James while the 6-foot-10 Porter will find himself shadowing Anthony Davis, who at 6-foot-11, towers over the Nuggets’ 6-foot-7 starting power forward Paul Millsap. 

Efficiency overlooked

Three other Nuggets are scoring at least 8 points a game. These are Millsap (8.4), backup point guard Monte Morris (8.5), and starting guard Gary Harris (9.2), who has ably filled in for the injured Will Barton. 

Barton has reportedly been getting tested for COVID-19 daily so that he would only have to be quarantined for 4 days in case he rejoins the team in the bubble. A healthy Barton, who averaged 15.1 points during the regular season, would give Denver more scoring options.

The Lakers are faring better than the Nuggets in points, rebounds, steals, and field goal percentage per game. But note, these are the same statistical categories where the Clippers also ranked higher than the Nuggets. 

What is often overlooked about the Nuggets is their efficiency. They are the second-best in three-point shooting percentage. They shot 39.1% despite hoisting the second-most attempts from beyond the arc, next only to the Houston Rockets. 

The Nuggets are No. 1 in the league in offensive efficiency rating. And this efficiency is best typified by Murray. 

It is no secret that for the Nuggets to win, Murray must score. In their losses in the playoffs, Murray averaged less than 15 points a game. However, Murray still converted 42% from the field in these losses. 

This tells us that the Nuggets are not the type who would force their shots, but rather, their offense emanates from ball and player movement and the masterful playmaking of Jokic.

Picture of grit

More than the numbers, the Denver Nuggets are playing with a healthy perspective: They remain committed to their goal of winning, but they know the pressure is not on them. The Nuggets want to make the finals. The Lakers have to make the finals. 

The Nuggets are battle-tested, having survived 6 elimination games these playoffs. They have been a picture of character and resilience. Whether these will be enough to topple the freight train that is the Lakers remains to be seen, but as the Clippers have learned, it is not wise to underestimate the Nuggets. 

The Heat, on the other hand, have been a picture of grit. While they may not be the most talented among the teams still in the running, the Heat are probably the most balanced and the most tenacious.

All of the Heat starters – Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic, Bam Adebayo, Duncan Robinson, and Jae Crowder- are scoring in double digits these playoffs. 

Add 20-year-old rookie Tyler Herro who has been showing remarkable poise in big games, and you have 6 options all capable of contributing offensively.

A testament to how well the Heat spread the scoring load is that they rank 3rd in team assists in the playoffs.  Miami is also 4th overall in offensive efficiency rating, 5th in points per game, and 3rd in three-point percentage – better than the Celtics in all the 3 categories. 

Heat coach Erik Spoelstra’s calling card, though, has always been defense. the Fil-Am mentor has made the right moves recently to plug the holes in the Heat defense. 

During the regular season, Miami was just 12th in the league in defensive rating. They have since improved to 4th overall in the playoffs. 

A key adjustment that Spoelstra has done is to insert forward Crowder in the starting lineup in place of center Myers Leonard. 

With NBA All-Defensive Second Team Bam Adebayo anchoring the interior and serving as the last line of defense, Miami’s platoon of two-way, versatile guards and forwards is able to switch on defenses, trap, and make life a living hell for opposing teams.

They have allowed the least number of three-point attempts in the playoffs, an indication of how well the Heat rotate on screens and close out on shooters. 

Defense, they say, is a matter of will. There probably is no one in the playoffs, or in the entire league for that matter, who is defined best by tenacity than Butler. 

Butler has been leading the team by scoring in the clutch and by taking it upon himself to guard the best player of opposing teams. Against the Milwaukee Bucks, Butler took on Giannis Antetokounmpo. In Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, Butler defended Jayson Tatum. 

When you have your best player sacrificing his offense and his body to guard the biggest threat from the opposing team, then the rest of the team responds and rises to the challenge. 

Miami is 3rd in the playoffs in defensive efficiency in the 4th quarter, showing that when the game is on the line, they turn their defense into an impenetrable fortress.

Butler has said he does not consider his team the underdogs against the Celtics. The Heat probably have a bigger chance to prevail over the Celtics than the Nuggets have of winning over the Lakers. 

A Lakers-Heat finals will still evoke some drama – LeBron James going up against the team he led to two championships. The storyline, though, will still not be as compelling as a Lakers-Celtics finals. 

But if there is anything these playoff bubble has shown us, it’s that even teams who have been considered by so-called experts as heavy favorites are not assured of victories. Just ask the Clippers and the Bucks. – Rappler.com