West finals: Do the Nuggets stand a chance against the Lakers?

The Denver Nuggets played spoilers to the anticipated Battle of LA in the Western Conference Finals, but they deserve to be where they are.

The question now is, can their Cinderella run continue, or will the clock strike midnight against LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the rest of the favored Los Angeles Lakers?

To dive deep into this series, Rappler contributors Naveen Ganglani and Joe Viray answer 8 questions determining who makes the NBA Finals from the West:

The Nuggets are riding high on some serious momentum. Should the Lakers be concerned?

Joe: Momentum is a dangerous force to be going up against, and despite being the clear underdogs in this series like they were against the Clippers, the Nuggets should not be completely counted out. The Lakers definitely watched their fellow LA team fall apart at the seams, and they would be wise to take this matchup seriously from the get-go.

Naveen: Not to such a high degree, but they cannot be overconfident. The Lakers matched up well against the Nuggets during the regular season, winning 3-1, and unlike the Clippers, the Lakers have enough rim protection to make it difficult for Denver to score in the paint.

The Nuggets, nevertheless, are a resilient bunch, so the Lakers can’t afford to lose their focus at any point during this series.

Nikola Jokic is fast establishing himself as the best offensive center in the league. Anthony Davis is an elite defender and a proven two-way threat.

Who has the upper hand in this series?

Joe: It’s safe to say Jokic is definitely the more lethal offensive weapon, while Davis, although capable of scoring in bunches, isn’t quite the passer Jokic is. On defense, Jokic is a statue, while Davis is a member of the NBA All-Defensive First Team and is capable of defending multiple positions.

Elite two-way players are rare gems in the NBA, and Davis is part of that exclusive club, so I think Davis has the upper hand in this matchup.

Naveen: I would go with Davis. The Lakers have enough depth up front with JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard to throw at Jokic without getting AD in potential foul trouble. Having those two also prevents Jokic from dominating the rebounding department like he did against the Clippers, which will make life easier for Davis.

The Lakers’ best lineup is AD at the 5, but having the cushion to play him at the 4 until closing time will allow Davis to focus on punishing the defense of Denver, whose best rim protector is Mason Plumlee. 

How will the Lakers deal with the Nikola Jokic-Jamal Murray pick-and-roll?

Joe: It’ll be a tall task, even for the Lakers. If they choose to drop their big man, Murray can pull up for a 3 or step inside the arc for a mid-range jumper. If they choose to blitz/double Murray, they will leave Jokic open on the short roll, and Jokic is an elite decision maker in 4-on-3 situations.

If the Lakers “ICE” the pick-and-roll (preventing Murray from using the screen and funneling him towards the dropping big), then Jokic can pop out beyond the arc for a catch-and-shoot 3 (Jokic is shooting 44% on 3s while averaging 6 attempts per game during the playoffs). If I were the Lakers, the best option would be to switch the pick-and-roll and hope that it’s enough.

Naveen: I agree with Joe; switching might be the way to go. The potential weakness there is that Murray torches his bigger defender or Jokic posts his smaller counterpart.

In either situation, expect LA to have someone ready to help from the weak side – Davis is amazing at this – and live with the threat of someone like Garry Harris, Torrey Craig, or Michael Porter Jr hitting outside shots. Even then, the Lakers have enough length on defense to close the gaps and semi-contest their attempts.

It seems no one has been able to stop LeBron James during these playoffs, and on paper the Nuggets seem to have no answer for him.

If you were coach Michael Malone, what would your game plan be for him?

Joe: Game planning for LeBron is next to impossible. You can’t really stop him from doing what he wants; he’s just that great of a player.

If I’m Michael Malone, forget about trying to lock LeBron down. Focus on the others, including Anthony Davis. Let LeBron get his and hope that his teammates have bad nights. That means jumping the passing lanes, closing out hard on shooters especially on the weak side, making sure rotations are crisp, and fighting hard to get rebounds.

Naveen: LeBron is the ultimate chess player in basketball. His IQ is at a level unlike ever before, which means he will know how to counter whatever defensive philosophy Malone throws his way.

Until now, the best method to contain LeBron – because you cannot stop him – is what Gregg Popovich employed every time the Spurs faced James in the finals: play him one-on-one, back up, prevent his drive with a wall of defenders, and live with him taking semi-open outside shots. If he’s making them from out there, well, the only thing you can do is tip your cap to the so-called King. 

Besides Jokic and Murray, who else on the Nuggets will need to step up for them to have a chance at an upset?

Joe: Almost everyone else on the Nuggets has to step up, to be completely honest. But to point a specific person out, Michael Porter Jr will be counted on to provide quality minutes off the bench.

Yes, he’s only a rookie who’s a bit too shot-hungry and is suspect on the defensive end. It’s probably too much to expect him to become a solid third option right now. But if he can be a net positive during the non-Jokic/non-Murray minutes, that will go a long way towards the Nuggets making this series a competitive one.

Naveen: It will have to be a collective effort. The aforementioned shooters plus guys like Jerami Grant and Paul Millsap will have to be aggressive when scoring opportunities open up for them. The Lakers’ two-star combo of LeBron and AD are better than Jokic and Murray, but Denver’s supporting cast is more than capable of outplaying the Lakers’ sidekicks. 

What are the key factors for the Lakers to advance?

Joe: For the Lakers, it’s quite simple: LeBron needs to continue being his “destroyer of worlds” self, Davis needs to be aggressive offensively, and their supporting cast needs to maintain the momentum they built up during the first two rounds.

They need to cut off the Nuggets’ offensive fulcrum in Jokic, and in order to do that they will need to be as sharp defensively as they were against Houston. They are the favorites in this series, but as their cross-city rivals can attest to, a team out of sync and out of focus is highly vulnerable against team looking to spring a massive upset. They need to be great from the get-go, which means playing hard and not letting up for 48 minutes of every single game.

Naveen: LA will come in as the favorite in this series and for good reason. They have the moving parts to contain Denver’s strengths while the Nuggets will struggle to slow down the Lakers when they’re at their best.

LeBron, AD, and company cannot get complacent; if their defense remains as reliable as it’s been in the playoffs – where they are 8-2 – the offense will take care of itself and catapult the purple and gold back to the finals for the first time since 2010.

What are the key factors for the Nuggets to advance?

Joe: Again, the Nuggets will have serious momentum going into this game – ride that momentum hard. There is nothing to lose in this series and much more to gain. Keep running your offense through Jokic and keep pairing him up with Murray on pick-and-rolls.

Everyone else needs to be ready to catch a pass, but at the same time they shouldn’t stand still; move around, cut, relocate, set off-ball screens, etc. A stagnant offense will send the Nuggets packing home in a heartbeat.

Defensively, as aforementioned, let LeBron get his and hope everyone else has subpar nights. Be as disruptive as possible. These all need to fall into place at once, and while the odds are mightily against them, let’s not forget that these Nuggets aren’t afraid to take the odds and put them in the trash can.

Naveen: The Jokic-Murray two-man game is the fulcrum of Denver’s offense, but Malone will need more from the rest of his team for a chance against LA. For as good as that duo is, the Nuggets will need to put the pressure on the Lakers as a collective unit in the first 3 quarters to keep their studs fresh enough to close out games.

On defense, Denver has to force LeBron to beat them as a scorer and not as a passer. If the rest of the Lakers turn into spectators while the scoring burden falls on their two stars, that will level the playing field.

Who wins the Western Conference Finals and in how many games?

Joe: While the league was probably hoping for an all-LA Western Conference Finals, it’s great that a team that was given close to zero chance of advancing actually spat in the face of conventional wisdom.

The Nuggets have now twice come back from down 3-1 to reward themselves with a showdown with the title-favorite Lakers. If the Nuggets again survive long enough to reach 7 games, then all bets are off.

Unfortunately, I don’t think they will get to that point. The Lakers are too good, too determined, and too hungry to get that championship. Most of all, they have the best player in the world right now. I’m taking the Lakers in 5 to advance to the NBA Finals.

Naveen: The Lakers are well-rested, united, and the closest they’ve been to a title in recent memory. LeBron is incredibly motivated while Davis is playing like an MVP. Denver will surprise us all again and make this a challenging series, but there won’t be an upset. Lakers in 6. – Rappler.com